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PUBLIC EVENT RECORD · SETTLED MACRO, CENTRAL-BANK & FILING RELEASES

Every covered release, our 700 ms read, and what the market did next

Every release covered by Cortex Flash is archived here with its Tick 1 dispatch latency, Tick 3 written interpretation and falsification condition, and the measured benchmark reaction at 5 s, 30 s, 120 s, and 300 s. Divergent calls—where the market moved against the initial read or triggered the stated invalidation threshold—are highlighted and never removed.

142 events settled since 30 Oct 2026 · 19 divergent, all published.
SETTLED EVENT LEDGER · FOUR-HORIZON REACTION PULSE

Verified Release Dispatch, 700 ms Written Signal & Post-Release Benchmark Settlement

Date / Time UTCSeries (slug)Actual vs ConsensusSurpriseTick 1 / Tick 3Written Signal5 s / 30 s / 120 s / 300 s ReactionVerdict
2026-10-30 12:30:00 UTC
US CPI YoY (BLS)
us-cpi
2.6% vs 2.4%+0.2 pp (+2.15 z)42 ms / 640 ms
HAWKISH_RATES_REPRICING · UST 2Y HIGHER / EURUSD LOWER
Invalidation: UST 2Y yield failure to hold above 4.18% within 300 s
5s: ZN -6.5 ticks · EURUSD -18 pips
30s: ZN -9.0 ticks · EURUSD -27 pips
120s: ZN -11.5 ticks · EURUSD -34 pips
300s: ZN -12.0 ticks · EURUSD -36 pips · ES -0.42%
CONFIRMED
2026-11-01 12:30:00 UTC
US Nonfarm Payrolls (BLS)
us-nfp
+114k vs +180k-66k (-1.84 z)47 ms / 685 ms
DOVISH_FRONT_END_BID · ZN HIGHER / DXY LOWER
Invalidation: Prior-month upward revision > +40k or AHE >= +0.4% MoM
5s: ZN +8.0 ticks · USDJPY -42 pips
30s: ZN +3.5 ticks · USDJPY -14 pips
120s: ZN -2.0 ticks · USDJPY +19 pips
300s: ZN -4.5 ticks · USDJPY +31 pips (AHE +0.4% MoM offset)
DIVERGENT
2026-11-02 18:00:00 UTC
FOMC Target Rate Decision
fomc-rate
4.50%–4.75% vs 4.50%–4.75%0 bps (+1.40 z statement hawkishness)39 ms / 710 ms
STATEMENT_HAWKISH_TILT · SOFRZ6 LOWER / USD HIGHER
Invalidation: 2Y Treasury yield dropping below pre-release 4.21%
5s: ZT -3.5 ticks · EURUSD -14 pips
30s: ZT -5.0 ticks · EURUSD -22 pips
120s: ZT -6.5 ticks · EURUSD -29 pips
300s: ZT -7.0 ticks · EURUSD -31 pips
CONFIRMED
2026-11-03 13:15:00 UTC
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
ecb-rate
3.25% vs 3.25%0 bps (-1.65 z growth guidance)48 ms / 690 ms
DOVISH_GUIDANCE_SHIFT · FGBL HIGHER / EURUSD LOWER
Invalidation: Bund futures (FGBL) losing 133.40 handle before 300 s
5s: FGBL +18 ticks · EURUSD -19 pips
30s: FGBL +24 ticks · EURUSD -28 pips
120s: FGBL +29 ticks · EURUSD -35 pips
300s: FGBL +31 ticks · EURUSD -38 pips
CONFIRMED
2026-11-04 12:00:00 UTC
Bank of England Bank Rate
boe-rate
4.75% vs 4.75%7–2 vote split vs 6–3 expected45 ms / 675 ms
HAWKISH_VOTE_SPLIT · GILT LOWER / GBPUSD HIGHER
Invalidation: GBP/USD trading below 1.2940 within 120 s
5s: GBPUSD +24 pips · Long Gilt -22 ticks
30s: GBPUSD +11 pips · Long Gilt -9 ticks
120s: GBPUSD -16 pips · Long Gilt +14 ticks
300s: GBPUSD -28 pips · Long Gilt +21 ticks
DIVERGENT
2026-11-04 08:30:00 UTC
SNB Policy Rate Decision
ch-snb-rate
1.00% vs 1.25%-25 bps (-2.45 z)38 ms / 630 ms
DOVISH_CUT_CHF_WEAKENING · USDCHF HIGHER / SARON HIGHER
Invalidation: USD/CHF retracing below 0.8580 within 300 s
5s: USDCHF +34 pips · SARON +14 bps
30s: USDCHF +49 pips · SARON +17 bps
120s: USDCHF +61 pips · SARON +19 bps
300s: USDCHF +68 pips · SARON +19 bps
CONFIRMED
2026-11-05 03:00:00 UTC
Bank of Japan Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate
jp-boj-rate
0.25% vs 0.25%0 bps (+1.52 z Outlook Report wage language)51 ms / 720 ms
HAWKISH_OUTLOOK_GUIDANCE · USDJPY LOWER / JGB 10Y YIELD HIGHER
Invalidation: USD/JPY breaking above 153.40 session high
5s: USDJPY -28 pips · JGB futures -11 ticks
30s: USDJPY -44 pips · JGB futures -16 ticks
120s: USDJPY -58 pips · JGB futures -19 ticks
300s: USDJPY -64 pips · JGB futures -21 ticks
CONFIRMED
2026-11-05 06:00:00 UTC
ADX / DFM Material Issuer Disclosure (EMAAR.AE)
ae-adx-disclosure
AED 8.4bn Backlog + Special Dividend Proposal vs Routine Q3 Operating UpdateMaterial Capital Return Catalyst49 ms / 695 ms
BULLISH_ISSUER_CATALYST · EMAAR.AE HIGHER
Invalidation: EMAAR.AE failing to hold opening auction gain above AED 13.10
5s: EMAAR.AE +1.9% (AED 13.35)
30s: EMAAR.AE +2.4% (AED 13.42)
120s: EMAAR.AE +2.8% (AED 13.47)
300s: EMAAR.AE +3.1% (AED 13.51)
CONFIRMED
SETTLED EVENT DRILL-DOWN · /record/us-cpi/2026-10-30

US CPI YoY (BLS) (2026-10-30 12:30:00 UTC) — CONFIRMED

Core shelter and medical-care services printed above median expectations, driving immediate front-end Treasury repricing that held through the 5-minute settlement window.

Actual / Consensus: 2.6% vs 2.4% (+0.2 pp (+2.15 z))
Pipeline Timestamps: Tick 1: 42 ms · Tick 3: 640 ms
Stated Invalidation: UST 2Y yield failure to hold above 4.18% within 300 s
300 s Settlement: ZN -12.0 ticks · EURUSD -36 pips · ES -0.42%
Institutional Desk: desk@cortexflash.com
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