PUBLIC EVENT RECORD · SETTLED MACRO, CENTRAL-BANK & FILING RELEASES
Every covered release, our 700 ms read, and what the market did next
Every release covered by Cortex Flash is archived here with its Tick 1 dispatch latency, Tick 3 written interpretation and falsification condition, and the measured benchmark reaction at 5 s, 30 s, 120 s, and 300 s. Divergent calls—where the market moved against the initial read or triggered the stated invalidation threshold—are highlighted and never removed.
142 events settled since 30 Oct 2026 · 19 divergent, all published.
SETTLED EVENT LEDGER · FOUR-HORIZON REACTION PULSE
Verified Release Dispatch, 700 ms Written Signal & Post-Release Benchmark Settlement
| Date / Time UTC | Series (slug) | Actual vs Consensus | Surprise | Tick 1 / Tick 3 | Written Signal | 5 s / 30 s / 120 s / 300 s Reaction | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 12:30:00 UTC | US CPI YoY (BLS) us-cpi | 2.6% vs 2.4% | +0.2 pp (+2.15 z) | 42 ms / 640 ms | HAWKISH_RATES_REPRICING · UST 2Y HIGHER / EURUSD LOWER Invalidation: UST 2Y yield failure to hold above 4.18% within 300 s | 5s: ZN -6.5 ticks · EURUSD -18 pips 30s: ZN -9.0 ticks · EURUSD -27 pips 120s: ZN -11.5 ticks · EURUSD -34 pips 300s: ZN -12.0 ticks · EURUSD -36 pips · ES -0.42% | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-11-01 12:30:00 UTC | US Nonfarm Payrolls (BLS) us-nfp | +114k vs +180k | -66k (-1.84 z) | 47 ms / 685 ms | DOVISH_FRONT_END_BID · ZN HIGHER / DXY LOWER Invalidation: Prior-month upward revision > +40k or AHE >= +0.4% MoM | 5s: ZN +8.0 ticks · USDJPY -42 pips 30s: ZN +3.5 ticks · USDJPY -14 pips 120s: ZN -2.0 ticks · USDJPY +19 pips 300s: ZN -4.5 ticks · USDJPY +31 pips (AHE +0.4% MoM offset) | DIVERGENT |
| 2026-11-02 18:00:00 UTC | FOMC Target Rate Decision fomc-rate | 4.50%–4.75% vs 4.50%–4.75% | 0 bps (+1.40 z statement hawkishness) | 39 ms / 710 ms | STATEMENT_HAWKISH_TILT · SOFRZ6 LOWER / USD HIGHER Invalidation: 2Y Treasury yield dropping below pre-release 4.21% | 5s: ZT -3.5 ticks · EURUSD -14 pips 30s: ZT -5.0 ticks · EURUSD -22 pips 120s: ZT -6.5 ticks · EURUSD -29 pips 300s: ZT -7.0 ticks · EURUSD -31 pips | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-11-03 13:15:00 UTC | ECB Deposit Facility Rate ecb-rate | 3.25% vs 3.25% | 0 bps (-1.65 z growth guidance) | 48 ms / 690 ms | DOVISH_GUIDANCE_SHIFT · FGBL HIGHER / EURUSD LOWER Invalidation: Bund futures (FGBL) losing 133.40 handle before 300 s | 5s: FGBL +18 ticks · EURUSD -19 pips 30s: FGBL +24 ticks · EURUSD -28 pips 120s: FGBL +29 ticks · EURUSD -35 pips 300s: FGBL +31 ticks · EURUSD -38 pips | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-11-04 12:00:00 UTC | Bank of England Bank Rate boe-rate | 4.75% vs 4.75% | 7–2 vote split vs 6–3 expected | 45 ms / 675 ms | HAWKISH_VOTE_SPLIT · GILT LOWER / GBPUSD HIGHER Invalidation: GBP/USD trading below 1.2940 within 120 s | 5s: GBPUSD +24 pips · Long Gilt -22 ticks 30s: GBPUSD +11 pips · Long Gilt -9 ticks 120s: GBPUSD -16 pips · Long Gilt +14 ticks 300s: GBPUSD -28 pips · Long Gilt +21 ticks | DIVERGENT |
| 2026-11-04 08:30:00 UTC | SNB Policy Rate Decision ch-snb-rate | 1.00% vs 1.25% | -25 bps (-2.45 z) | 38 ms / 630 ms | DOVISH_CUT_CHF_WEAKENING · USDCHF HIGHER / SARON HIGHER Invalidation: USD/CHF retracing below 0.8580 within 300 s | 5s: USDCHF +34 pips · SARON +14 bps 30s: USDCHF +49 pips · SARON +17 bps 120s: USDCHF +61 pips · SARON +19 bps 300s: USDCHF +68 pips · SARON +19 bps | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-11-05 03:00:00 UTC | Bank of Japan Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate jp-boj-rate | 0.25% vs 0.25% | 0 bps (+1.52 z Outlook Report wage language) | 51 ms / 720 ms | HAWKISH_OUTLOOK_GUIDANCE · USDJPY LOWER / JGB 10Y YIELD HIGHER Invalidation: USD/JPY breaking above 153.40 session high | 5s: USDJPY -28 pips · JGB futures -11 ticks 30s: USDJPY -44 pips · JGB futures -16 ticks 120s: USDJPY -58 pips · JGB futures -19 ticks 300s: USDJPY -64 pips · JGB futures -21 ticks | CONFIRMED |
| 2026-11-05 06:00:00 UTC | ADX / DFM Material Issuer Disclosure (EMAAR.AE) ae-adx-disclosure | AED 8.4bn Backlog + Special Dividend Proposal vs Routine Q3 Operating Update | Material Capital Return Catalyst | 49 ms / 695 ms | BULLISH_ISSUER_CATALYST · EMAAR.AE HIGHER Invalidation: EMAAR.AE failing to hold opening auction gain above AED 13.10 | 5s: EMAAR.AE +1.9% (AED 13.35) 30s: EMAAR.AE +2.4% (AED 13.42) 120s: EMAAR.AE +2.8% (AED 13.47) 300s: EMAAR.AE +3.1% (AED 13.51) | CONFIRMED |
SETTLED EVENT DRILL-DOWN · /record/us-cpi/2026-10-30
US CPI YoY (BLS) (2026-10-30 12:30:00 UTC) — CONFIRMED
Core shelter and medical-care services printed above median expectations, driving immediate front-end Treasury repricing that held through the 5-minute settlement window.
Actual / Consensus: 2.6% vs 2.4% (+0.2 pp (+2.15 z))
Pipeline Timestamps: Tick 1: 42 ms · Tick 3: 640 ms
Stated Invalidation: UST 2Y yield failure to hold above 4.18% within 300 s
300 s Settlement: ZN -12.0 ticks · EURUSD -36 pips · ES -0.42%